Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The average number of daily homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new official figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that murder numbers may not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was shared by the director of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded in these past months is extremely notable,” the President remarked, noting that in November the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for assessing the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the will to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it could obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.