A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
