Is the Entertainment Fading? The Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL this campaign has been the decline of goals scored in open play and the way clubs are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.
When we compare scoring methods to the first 11 games the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less overall.
If we look at the bigger picture, shot attempts clubs are making have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last time out.
Regardless of the notable jump in set-play finishes, records show only two additional attempts generated from these situations excluding penalties, showing the proficiency sides are at devising strategies to convert from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Reveal the Tale
301 total goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals each match, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the least for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
Yet merely 196 scores scored in open play averages out 1.78 each match and is on course to be the smallest for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).
2009-10 is also the sole English top-flight season to witness scoring more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen by far the biggest drop, scoring a mere four in 11 games, 10 less than this point last season.
Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is largely a trend among London clubs, with half of the capital's seven sides netting a minimum of five less scores from open-play than last season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them scoring many goals at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to score in open-play this campaign.
Conversely Manchester City have seen the most significant jump, with all but one of their 23 scores so far coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Comparing clubs that came up with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have recorded three extra goals in open-play than the Saints achieved in their first 11 games leading to the drop the previous campaign.
In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the largest rise, with the two clubs making up for the reduction of five goals that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
United have netted double the number scores from set-pieces as they managed in the 11 games last season prior to their coach took over, while the Black Cats once more have been more effective at scoring than the similar-colored team they replaced.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about increasing scoring from set-plays, since they've netted three fewer than last season, like Nottingham Forest, although this may result from the change in style they're working to install.
Overall Patterns
Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – are this season's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City are the sole team to defy the pattern so far by doing the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to observe if sides persist to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start converting increased totals in open-play too.
