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Breaking into the world’s most-visited museum in the middle of the day, grabbing eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into Paris traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who study trends in international art crime, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the material value of valuable gems or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of lesser importance to the thieves.

“You may ask why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts mean that many outlets have strengthened their protection in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look vulnerable, in part because of the inherent reason of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and also the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the world have cut back on police and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the crown of Empress Eugénie containing thousands of diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better comparisons may be the recent burglary of valuables from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a multi-million pound valuable object from a UK landmark the same year, the recent heist of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a series of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, specialists say, the criminals would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They are too well-known, especially given the cultural authorities has published photos of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to keep it in hiding, perhaps by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an partner informing authorities to cash in a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the theft had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It's global news and in all the newspapers. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by dismantling or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary cutting techniques give gems a larger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a coverup.

Importantly, however, dismantling or re-cutting eliminates the evidence of the theft. “I suspect that the robbers will try to take the items to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, India or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already raised questions about protective steps at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be published next month criticising “considerable” and “ongoing” slow progress in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were lacking in multiple areas. But security experts say displaying valuable objects in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with dangers that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Older structures are more difficult to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “Many of them have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, said Peter Stürmann. “It should include several layers to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with state-of-the-art external CCTV cameras or in-built vibration sensors that alert about a smashed window in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Laser scanners can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am local time, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when security change their shifts and prior to the museum is crowded who actually act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new gadgets that can notify more quickly and effectively, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to circumvent protections. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the historic structure had primarily centered on visitor management in the past decade, and not as much on protection.

The museum has an on-site brigade of about 50 permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to protect the artworks from fires and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all depends on government support and funding, and currently France simply has no resources.”