Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.